Using the Premortem Technique to Create Back-up Plans

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After each project, we usually have a postmortem.  We review the project in hindsight - after it happened.  But do you know what there's such a concept as premortem?  It's an exercise in hindsight in advance.  You envision what could go wrong, what will go wrong -  in advance, before you even start with the project.

I read this from "The Obstacle is the Way" by Ryan Holiday".   Premortem is a good exercise to anticipate possible scenarios so you can have backup plans.  

Holiday shares:

"Far too many ambitious undertakings fail for preventable reasons. Far too many people don’t have a backup plan because they refuse to consider that something might not go exactly as they wish". 

This concept of premortem though is nothing new. The origin is credited to the Stoics which they call premeditatio malorum (premeditation of evils). 

In one my past blogposts about Stoicism, this was referred to as retrospective negative visualization.   But the examples in that blogpost were mostly serious life situations like visualizing the loss of a loved one.

But for the purpose of this blog, we could use the premortem technique for simple projects, plans or goals.  Here's a simple framework you can use to start thinking about the possible negative scenarios of your projects and goals, and the corresponding possible solutions and back-up plans: 

What if ______?  Then I will  ______.

What if ______?  Instead I’ll just _______. 

What if _______? No problem, I can always ________.

And in case there is is nothing that can be done, Holiday says that the Stoic way is to manage expectations.  Because sometimes, he says, the only answer to "What if . . . " is, "It will suck but we’ll be okay".